When we hosted our 2024 National Summit on Student Success, we selected keynote speakers to guide our critical three-day conversation. One of these luminaries was Dr. Raj Chetty, Director of Opportunity Insights and the William A. Ackman Professor of Economics at Harvard University. During his inspirational speech, Dr. Chetty discussed the relationship between upward mobility and student success, the importance of first jobs after graduation, and the power of social connectedness for lower-income students.
Upward Mobility Has Stalled
Dr. Chetty observed that the American Dream is characterized by measurable upward mobility: Are people in their mid-30s earning more than their parents earned at that age? Sharing the data, he explained:
Kids born in the middle of the last century were virtually guaranteed to achieve the American Dream. Ninety-two percent earned more than their parents did among those born in 1940. For children born in the 1980s, it's become a 50/50 shot.
He believes that trend reflects a fundamental change in the U.S. economy. People are frustrated that hard work no longer guarantees getting ahead. This is why Opportunity Insights studies what higher education can do to create more social mobility and opportunity.
Dr. Chetty offered a geographic breakdown of economic mobility in America. His data on 20 million people born in the late 1970s and early 1980s, derived from tax returns and viewed across 740 different U.S. metro and rural areas, created a range for calculating upward mobility: “If you were a kid in a low-income family making $27,000 a year, at the 25th percentile of the U.S. national income distribution, what is your average income when you're 35 years old?”
In low-income areas, those 35-year-olds were earning $25,000 or less. In areas enjoying greater economic opportunities, people in their mid-30s might have earned over $50,000, almost doubling their parents’ income a generation ago. “There are many places where the American Dream is well and alive, but unfortunately in much of the Southeast and the industrial Midwest, kids don't have great chances of rising up.”
The Science of Economic Opportunity
Dr. Chetty explained how the data can help us frame policy as we compare strong and struggling regional economies: “We now have a microscope to break down the aggregate national data and make comparisons between different places and higher education institutions to understand the science of economic opportunity.”
Correlating income levels with demographics on his maps, he demonstrated via tax and census data that economic and racial disparities are connected:
Black men have much poorer chances than white men of rising up. In the very best places for upward mobility for Black men, they actually have worse prospects than the very worst places for white men. It's almost like we still have two different countries in terms of economic opportunity.
Higher education could significantly improve economic opportunity. Dr. Chetty noted that many UIA campuses, such as Georgia State University, serve communities where upward mobility matters most: “Atlanta ranks 50th out of the 50 largest American cities in upward mobility. I think the programs at Georgia State can change the trajectory for kids who have a particularly hard time rising up.”
Citing that school’s student success initiative, he described how Opportunity Insights linked four data sets for tracking and analyzing student outcomes:
- Tax records
- College attendance statistics
- SAT and ACT scores
- Internal college admissions data
He plotted this data on a graph indicating upward mobility rate (the number of students from low-income families who ultimately reach the top 20% of income distribution) and measure of access (the number of low-income students admitted to the school), adding that UIA institutions have stronger access numbers since they’re proactive about admitting low-income students. (These statistics are available at New York Times College Mobility.)
Improving the Admissions Process
Dr. Chetty emphasized how this data identifies the work required to reboot the American Dream: “There are basically no colleges in the U.S. that both serve many low-income kids and deliver great outcomes in terms of their earnings after college. You need both for social mobility.”
Success requires access, and economic disparity factors start limiting young people long before they might apply to colleges. SAT scores are one indicator, he said:
A relatively high score puts you near the top for many selective colleges. One percent of kids with parents in the bottom 20% of income distribution achieve an SAT score above 1200. For parents at the top of that distribution, the number is nearly 50%. This steep gradient fundamentally reflects the deep disparities limiting our ability to increase access from the pool of students we're seeking to admit.
To illustrate, he compared Michigan State University and University of Texas Austin. Students from families at the 95th percentile of the income distribution are nearly twice as likely to attend Michigan State as those from average-level incomes, while students from the 20th percentile and below are only 60% as likely to attend. Meanwhile at UT Austin, most students applying and attending come from lower- and higher-income families, with a dip in application rate by middle-income students. Significantly, this data has nothing to do with the SAT scores, suggesting that institutions should be addressing other aspects of their admissions process.
The Value of Career Trajectory
Dr. Chetty highlighted the relationship between access and outcome at institutions that set their students on specific career pathways. He spoke about Vaughn College of Aeronautics and Technology in Queens, New York, whose program leads to high-paying occupations. He called it a modern vocational approach of equipping students with technical skills that impact the trajectory their economic mobility: “What seems critical is the quality of the first job that people get right out of college.”
He also referred to a study by Jesse Bruhn at Brown University, which focuses on the outcomes of soldiers assigned to first jobs based on their scores from the Armed Forces qualifying test:
The Brown team uses tax records to measure their incomes 15 years later. They're on enormously different career trajectories with more than 30% differences in earnings between IT and warehouse operations. That underscores the critical importance of whether your first job out of college puts you on a good career path.
Another path outside of traditional higher education is the Year Up sectoral job training program for high school graduates. Comparing subsequent tax data of participants with those who didn’t enter the program, he pointed to a trend of higher earnings through Year Up. Unlike many U.S. job programs, sectoral training does more than just teach skills. It connects people with employers hiring for specific jobs, and then provides further mentoring and support.
Dr. Chetty believes that providing social support can change student trajectories within traditional higher ed, citing the Accelerated Study and Associates Program (ASAP) at City University of New York (CUNY). He noted that it's more likely for CUNY ASAP students to complete their degrees because they receive the supports and social capital to help them navigate the program. He also mentioned Bottom Line Advising, a model focusing directly on student access and success beginning in high school, increasing college enrollment by 13% and BA completion by 23%.
Social Capital and Social Connection
For young people, achieving the American Dream is possible through economic connectedness, Opportunity Insight’s term for social capital and social connection. Dr. Chetty explained:
The places where kids from low-income families have the best chances of achieving the American Dream are the places with more interaction across class lines. That’s the strongest predictor of economic mobility that anybody has identified. It can happen in many contexts: your neighborhood, schools, religious institutions – and on college campuses.
More students thrive on campuses with more cross-class interaction. Beyond any programs offered, interaction within the community is key for connecting students to opportunity and increasing success. Dr. Chetty believes that understanding this benefit of social mobility is the first step on an evidence-based path for institutions committed to better outcomes for every student. However, the results of increasing student success on scale may not be immediately obvious:
People are on these better trajectories ten, 15 years after college. And you don't want to wait 15 years to evaluate the impacts of what you're doing. There's a tendency to gravitate towards college completion rates or how much you make the year after graduation.
Dr. Chetty invited other institutions to collaborate with his team:
If there are interventions that you're excited about, can we demonstrate that, ten to 15 years later, it's fundamentally changed students' lives? That would be an incredible way to build knowledge, give us a scientific understanding of how to promote student success, and ultimately revive the American Dream for everyone.
Note: This episode of the University Innovation Alliance’s Innovating Together Podcast originally aired on March 10, 2025. The podcast appears live on YouTube, Facebook, Twitter, and LinkedIn.
Resources Mentioned in This Episode
- Dr. Raj Chetty: Director, Opportunity Insights at Harvard University
- Opportunity Insights: a Harvard research group that analyzes and interprets data education-related data
- Georgia State University's student success initiative: ("A System for Student Success: A Conversation Tim Renick, Executive Director, National Institute for Student Success at Georgia State University," UIA, 8/5/21)
- New York Times College Mobility: a study on how the economy impacts higher ed
- Year Up: a sectoral job training program for high school graduates
- CUNY ASAP: City University of New York Accelerated Study and Associates Program
- Bottom Line Advising: a support program mentoring students from college application to degree completion
Bios of Guest and Co-Host
Dr. Raj Chetty is the William A. Ackman Professor of Economics at Harvard University and the Director of Opportunity Insights, which uses big data to study the science of economic opportunity: how we can give children from all backgrounds better chances of succeeding? Dr. Chetty’s work has been widely cited in academia, media outlets, and policy discussions in the United States and beyond. He received his Ph.D. from Harvard University in 2003 and is one of the youngest tenured professors in Harvard’s history. He has received numerous awards for his research, including a MacArthur “Genius” Fellowship, the John Bates Clark medal, given to the economist under 40 whose work is judged to have made the most significant contribution to the field, and Harvard’s George Ledlie prize, awarded for research that made the most valuable contribution to science, or in any way for the benefit of mankind.
Co-Host: Bridget Burns, Executive Director, University Innovation Alliance
As a trusted advisor to university presidents and policymakers, Dr. Bridget Burns is on a mission to transform the way institutions think about and act on behalf of low-income, first-generation, and students of color. She is the founding CEO of the University Innovation Alliance, a multi-campus laboratory for student success innovation that helps university leaders dramatically accelerate the implementation of scalable solutions to increase the number of college graduates.
About Innovating Together
Innovating Together is an event series that happens live on YouTube, Facebook, Twitter, and LinkedIn. It also becomes a podcast episode. Every week, we join forces with Inside Higher Ed and talk with a higher education luminary about student success innovations or a sitting college president or chancellor about how they're specifically navigating the challenges of leadership. We hope these episodes will leave you with a sense of optimism and a bit of inspiration.
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